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ONDS
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# ONDS — Ondas Holdings / Ondas Inc.
Sector: Defense Autonomy / Counter-UAS / Railroad Communications
Exchange: NASDAQ
Status: In rerate universe — cross-reference ticker-analysis/ONDS.md for full analysis
Thesis fit: MONITOR ONLY — does not fit core chokepoint thesis
Mention Log
| Date | Source | Tier | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Unattributed ONDS inflection analysis (pre-Mistral, circa Feb 2026) | T3 | Primary focus. Defense autonomy roll-up thesis. Narrative useful; numbers stale (pre-Mistral deal March 8, 2026). Full source: sources/onds-autonomy-defense-platform.md |
Rerate Summary (as of 2026-03-14)
| Field | Value | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Classification | ACTIVE RERATE \ | TURNAROUND \ | PRE-REVENUE |
| Pivot flag | YES — rebrand to Ondas Inc., pivoting to defense prime via M&A | ||
| Price at analysis | $9.83 | ||
| Adj EV | $3.72B | ||
| NTM EV/Sales (incl. Mistral H2) | 15.7x | ||
| Appropriate range | 12–22x | ||
| Signal | Staged entry — size like binary (1–3% max) | ||
| Floor / Base / Stretch | -71% / +2% / +82% | ||
| Probability | 25% / 50% / 25% | ||
| Key catalyst | March 25, 2026 earnings call (Mistral details + backlog); Mistral close Q2 2026 | ||
| Kill | Mistral deal fails AND Q1 2026 shows sequential revenue decline from Q4 $29.6M |
Monitor Flags
- March 25, 2026 earnings call — Mistral deal status, backlog update, Q1 revenue trajectory
- Mistral merger close expected Q2 2026 (pending regulatory/shareholder approval)
- Revenue trend: Q4 FY2025 $29.6M (+193% QoQ) — watch Q1 2026 for deceleration